Sunday, November 09, 2008

It is important to know what type of Trader you are!

All Trader Types

Accurate Trader

If you are an accurate trader, then you tend to be quiet and very responsible in meeting your obligations even beyond the call of duty. You are also thorough, practical and very accurate. You are the type of person that I'd want keeping track of my trades and that is your strong point. Your world probably tends to be very concrete and you value harmony and co-operation. However, trading/investing ideas tend to be very abstract. In addition the trading world tends to be very solitary...

One of your Trading Strengths

If someone hands you a system that works – you can follow through with it. You like things that are proven.

One of your Trading Challenges

Thinking too much could lead to analysis paralysis which could be a constant threat.



Administrative Trader
http://www.tharptradertest.com/administrative-trader-report.aspx

People who fit into this category have several of the qualities that make a good trader. You tend to be practical and realistic, and decisive. You move quickly to implement decisions and these are all good for trading. You love facts and what you think is concrete. You are very good at making sure that things run smoothly. As a result, you tend to be good at organizing projects and people to get things done the most efficient way possible...

One of your Trading Strengths

You should have no problems staying with and executing a simple trading system that someone gives you and you feel confident about.

One of your Trading Challenges

You love the details of trading system analysis and development so much but you can often be working on the wrong things. Your efforts can be misguided if you are following the wrong guidelines or advice.



Adventurous Trader

Generally you are a quiet and flexible observer until a problem appears and then you act quickly to find a solution. You are good at determining what makes things work and going through a large amount of information to find out what is important. This quality will help you immensely as a trader. You are not easily persuaded by anything that is not based on fact. However, if your orientation tends to be external, then you are probably a big risk taker...

One of your Trading Strengths

You're great at analyzing details to determine what makes things work.

One of your Trading Challenges

You might have problems with self analysis which is critical to eliminating mistakes in trading.



Accurate Trader

If you are an accurate trader, then you tend to be quiet and very responsible in meeting your obligations even beyond the call of duty. You are also thorough, practical and very accurate. You are the type of person that I'd want keeping track of my trades and that is your strong point. Your world probably tends to be very concrete and you value harmony and co-operation. However, trading/investing ideas tend to be very abstract. In addition the trading world tends to be very solitary...

One of your Trading Strengths

If someone hands you a system that works – you can follow through with it. You like things that are proven.

One of your Trading Challenges

Thinking too much could lead to analysis paralysis which could be a constant threat.



Artistic Trader

Being an Artistic Trader suggests that you enjoy what's going on around you and being in the "now." You like to have your own space and work within your own time frame. In this sense you enjoy the independence of trading, although not the fixed hours of the markets. One of your strengths is your ability to be open-minded, adaptable and flexible, so if you can figure out how to apply that to trading, it will improve your chances of success...

One of your Trading Strengths

You have an ability to be open minded, adaptable and flexible within your trading.

One of your Trading Challenges

Finding and fixing mistakes are not preferred behaviors.



Detailed Trader

The Detailed Trader type suggests that you are very quiet and serious. You tend to earn your success by being thorough, methodical, systematic, organized, and dependable. You are also realistic and responsible as long as things make sense for you. You have two of the three qualities that are necessary for trading success (i.e. You make decisions based on logic and analysis and you are decisive, orderly and do things sequentially). Thus, if you are willing to commit yourself, you'll probably be quite successful as a trader. However, you may need some help seeing the big picture that is necessary for trading success...

One of your Trading Strengths

You should have no problems staying with and executing a simple trading system that someone gives you and you feel confident about.

One of your Trading Challenges

You love the details of trading system analysis and development so much but you can often be working on the wrong things. Your efforts can be misguided if you are following the wrong guidelines or advice.



Facilitative Trader

The Facilitative Trader type suggests that you are very quiet and serious. You tend to be very sociable and good at facilitating others as a group leader. You tend to provide inspiring leadership as you find potential in everyone and you want them to fulfill their potential. As a result, you might be a good leader of traders, but be aware that you could be stretching yourself to be an individual or solitary trader. However, you probably like to be well organized, which is quite a useful trait for a trader/investor and you do have two of the three core qualities that are essential to being a great trader (i.e. you have the ability to see the big picture and connections between things. You are also decisive, orderly and able to do things sequentially).

Furthermore, you'll work at maintaining structure but you probably do not like to deal with logic and ideas, so trading system development could be a big problem for you.

One of your Trading Strengths

You bring energy, creativity and a willingness to explore new ideas to system development and trading.

One of your Trading Challenges

May have a need for external confirmation of your ideas, systems and beliefs to the detriment of developing your own system.



Fun-Loving Trader

You tend to be optimistic, outgoing, playful, loving life, the people around you and your material comforts. You probably enjoy working with others to make things happen and are more gregarious than the other trader types, finding security in your connection with others. You also bring a logical, common sense approach to your work. And you like to things to be fun. You are highly productive and have an infectious zest for life...

One of your Trading Strengths

If you choose to trade, you would be optimistic about your chances in the markets.

One of your Trading Challenges

You will have a tendency to throw good money after bad to try to jumpstart a losing trade and turn it around.



Independent Trader

If the markets interest you, you'll probably work to develop a logical explanation for how they work. This is because you love theoretical ideas and abstract concepts (in fact, much more so than people interactions). This can be great for trading success, if you don't get too theoretical. This type of trader profile suggests that you value knowledge above all else. As a result, you'll be constantly generating new ideas about the market or trying to disprove the ideas that you learn from others...

One of your Trading Strengths

You can quickly determine if a new style of trading or system will fit well with your personality.

One of your Trading Challenges

Your trading could dominate your time and you could become socially isolated, which in turn could upset others, particularly if you have a spouse.



Innovative Trader

Your goal is probably to understand the world, constantly absorbing new information that comes your way. You then process all of this through your intuition to quickly size up what is going on around you. This can be an excellent quality for traders and investors if you get the right information. Otherwise your decisions and conclusions may tend to be flawed. And this could be costly for you as a trader...

One of your Trading Strengths

You can quickly determine if a new style of trading or system will fit well with your personality and you get very excited about it.

One of your Trading Challenges

You want external confirmation for everything and have a strong need for a mentor.



Planning Trader

You tend to be decisive and to the point. You'll quickly assume leadership when it is called for by the circumstances around you. You have the ability to quickly develop and implement trading systems to meet your needs. You have the three core qualities that are essential to being a great trader (i.e. you have the ability to see the big picture, new possibilities and connections between things. You make decisions based on logic and analysis and you are decisive, orderly and do things sequentially). You can easily spot logical inefficiencies in the market and take advantage of them, especially if you are pointed in the right direction. You enjoy long-term planning and goal setting and seem to enjoy learning, expanding your knowledge and staying well-informed...

One of your Trading Strengths

Originality and drive; willingness to follow your ideas through to completion.

One of your Trading Challenges

Probably so logical that you don't recognize when emotions are causing you to self-destruct.



Socially Responsible Trader

Socially Responsible traders tend to be very loyal, especially to your values and to people who are important to you. In addition, you want an external life (and a market) that is congruent with your values. However, the market is going to do what it is going to do. You tend to be quick at seeing the possibilities, meaning that you can easily find opportunities in the market. You probably deal with the market according to your personal values and how you feel at the time...

One of your Trading Strengths

Totally motivated by your values and what "feels right" to you.

One of your Trading Challenges

Without an understanding of how to evaluate systems, you may persist in your market and trading beliefs despite the weight of objective evidence to the contrary.



Strategic Trader

You probably live in a world of ideas and strategic planning. This is because you value intelligence, knowledge, and being competent. These are great qualities for a trader/investor. In fact, you have the three core qualities that are essential to being a great trader (i.e. you have the ability to see the big picture, new possibilities and connections between things. You make decisions based on logic and analysis and you are decisive, orderly and do things sequentially). You have an original mind and a great drive to implement your ideas and achieve your goals. Thus, if trading success is important to you, you'll probably find a way to achieve it...

One of your Trading Strengths

Originality and drive; willingness to follow your ideas through to completion.

One of your Trading Challenges

Probably so logical that you don't recognize when emotions are causing you to self-destruct.



Supportive Trader

You tend to focus on the details of life, seeing what needs to be done and doing it in a conscientious manner. You take your responsibilities very seriously and you are very dependable, practical and realistic. At the same time, you strongly value security and stability. You tend not to be a risk taker, but you could see yourself as an investor as long as you had a structure to work under...

One of your Trading Strengths

Your creativity often comes from flashes of insight into the nature of things or the needs of people.

One of your Trading Challenges

You have trouble taking socially adverse trades, which if you dig deep would eliminate a lot of options for you in trading.



Values Driven Trader

Value Driven Traders typically need to do their own thing and trade something they deeply believe in that is self-generated. If you've listened to the media about what's important to success, then you could find yourself trading with some version of that, but with disastrous results. You tend to get your sense of meaning out of relationships, ideas, and material possessions, which suggests that you would tend to be motivated to make money. You have two out of the three characteristics that make a great trader you have the three core qualities that are essential to being a great trader (i.e. you have the ability to see the big picture, new possibilities and connections between things. And you are decisive, orderly and do things sequentially)...

One of your Trading Strengths

Can readily grasp how the markets work and develop new low-risk ideas.

One of your Trading Challenges

If you accept the status quo of society and how trading “should be done” as your understanding of the markets, then you’ll probably jump right in and make a mess of things.



FIND OUT WHAT TYPE OF TRADER YOU ARE ! here > http://www.tharptradertest.com

Stock and Equity Market Top Research Sites

I have been using dozens of top research sites, some of the notable one...

www.investors.com
www.motleyfool.com
www.moneycentral.com

www.marketwatch.com

www.morningstar.com
recently, finance.google.com

morningstar, google finance, marketwatch are best in terms of comprehensiveness and timeliness

Note : Consolidate the information, and make your OWN decision, not based on the sites recommendation.

p.s. See what the gurus buying... Eg Warren Buffett >> http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Property, a hedge again recession and inflation? Part II

Property – a hedge against inflation

according to thestar.com.my tee lin say ( May 2008 ) :-

The property market was bustling with robustness due to the slew of measures to boost the sector. Does that still hold in the current climate of uncertainty?

WHEN it rains, it pours. Inflation jitters, global credit tightening, stubborn high oil prices (and rising) and a looming food crisis have been major beefs weighing down global economies over many months.

As a direct consequence of battered consumer and business sentiments, companies have been snipping away at their sales forecasts, causing jitters in equity markets across the board. Such sentiments have led to a volatile and fluid environment; market pundits have not been spared from the wild swings as they vacillate between the “worst is over” and “there's still bad news in store.”

In Petaling Jaya and Kelana Jaya, prices are going between RM400 and RM450 psf, and have the further benefit of infrastructure capital.

Time to buy property?

Hence we have a general undertone that is still one of restrain and uncertainty. The lowered wealth effect from equity markets heightens the defensive nature of investors.

This has obviously put a damper on Malaysia's property market, taking some shine away from its robustness last year, not least because of the slew of attractive measures to boost the sector.

The fluid political landscape in Malaysia does little to lift the cloud for investors, most of whom are evidently adopting a wait and see approach.

But interestingly, economists say that during times of inflationary pressures, real estate in fact offers a good hedge against inflation. (Inflation hedging is when the real return of an asset is independent of the rate of inflation. Generally, an asset is a complete hedge against inflation when its nominal return changes in a one-to-one relationship with inflation).

Citi Research expects, that over the long run, property rents and asset values to rise in line with inflation, but more likely with nominal gross domestic product.

Will prices slide?

“There is no way property prices are going down. Construction and labour cost is going up. Land cost is also fixed. If you have money, you have to invest, because you won't get them any cheaper,” says Hall Chadwick Asia Sdn Bhd chairman, Kumar Tharmalingam.

“For example, if you bought a home 18 months ago or if you buy that very same house today, it is likely to be more expensive now than it was 18 months ago,” says Kumar.

Wong: The demand for properties depends on perception.

Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association (Rehda) president Ng Seing Liong adds: “If I were a buyer, I would buy today, because raw material prices are going up. This is the time to buy,”

“Demand on property still depends on location. On the whole, the results of the recent general election did cause some instability and led to a wait-and-see attitude among house buyers. But the undercurrent is still fairly stable,” he says.

Getting the act together

While global financial markets will continue its roller coaster ride, most property experts opine that Malaysia is fairly well insulated, Although macroeconomic fundamentals are sound, asset prices have been temporarily dampened as investors price in discounts to factor in a possible slowdown in the future.

“The subprime in the US is not really affecting us. But because of uncertainties in equity markets, this is creating a temporary gap of expectation. People are anxious that their incomes may be eroded by rising commodity prices. Banks have also started to aggressively advertise again. But house buyers are holding back until the market clears,” says Kumar.

“We have been so used to being mollycoddled over the last 30 years. So the present situation confuses people especially the lower rungs of homebuyers. Among the developers, yes, there is a slowdown in the bread and butter homes, but it's marginal. There is perhaps a 10% drop across the board on the bread and butter homes of less than RM400,000,” says Kumar.

Rehda’s Ng says that the state and federal government should take more proactive measures in their approach to work together.

“Everyday we are hearing criticism from the various political parties which isn't constructive. We need to hear more positive statements,” he says.

Limited downside

Noteworthy is that Malaysia's property market has yet to strongly take off unlike Singapore and Hong Kong. In prime areas, where rental yields of 8% to 10% are easily achieved, the property's price downside risk is further protected.

Malaysia's property market is buffered as it isn't financed by international bankers, nor is it affected by foreign debt.

“Malaysian banks are in healthy financial positions. We are able to take loans up to 80%. Even the EPF helps to pay the downpayment for property purchases,” says Kumar.

Kumar says certain developers have been very innovative. Through unique landscaping and creative gardening, they are able to fetch a premium price tag although their developments are located out of the city.

“The development in Ara Damansara for instance is very clever, as it has divided its development into small plots, each with its own identity. Instead of saying they live in Subang Jaya or Section 19, PJ, they say The High, or The Swing,”

“These niche developments have a name of their own, and is a one-upmanship by the developer. This enables the developers to tweak the prices as they offer a sort of avant-garde kind of living,”

Kumar says there are new groups of homebuyers, the younger generation, who do not mind paying more for quality design.

In the condo sector, he sees pockets of excellence in Mont Kiara, KLCC, Ara Damansara, Petaling Jaya Section 16 and the Kelana Jaya area. Notable developers include Sime Darby, SP Setia, Gamuda and E&O.

“Mont Kiara is a good example of how other developers have tapped into pioneer developer Sunrise Bhd's blueprint and benefited from it. All the developers there are doing well because Sunrise has set the standard and quality. They match its quality, if not make it better. So although the place is so crowded, it has not lost its attraction,” says Kumar.

He adds that the slowdown in Malaysia's property sales has not been significant, somewhere around 10%.

“Developers have no choice but to keep the momentum going as most of them are public listed companies with earnings to deliver. If they can't sell at a previous high price, they will reduce its size or increase its value added proposition,” he says.

Wong is of the view that if a buyer has the intention to reside in a property, then the present time is the time to buy, as vacant land is scarcer especially in the prime areas.

“However, if you are buying to invest, perhaps pause for awhile, as the global situation is still uncertain. The Malaysian economy could be slightly affected by slowing exports, as the exports are currently supported by strong commodity prices. While the impact is not severe, it may slow down the economy,” he says.

Talking hi-end

One segment of the market that has certainly not been affected by inflation or credit worries is definitely the luxury and upper end property market. Because of healthy liquidity and wealth amassed, this segment continues to transact record prices.

Kumar says luxury homebuyers are typically high net worth individuals with deep pockets.

“Record prices in KL will continue to be transacted in the secondary market. One KL (a development by Datuk Chua Ma Yu) for instance, which started off at RM1,200 per sq ft (psf), recently had two transactions at RM2,000 psf. We have yet to see what kind of prices will be transacted when The Four Seasons is launched,” he says.

The Binjai and the Millenium Residence are other branded residences that may be tested with new benchmark pricing.

Currently, the average develper's selling prices of residential properties in Kuala Lumpur and its fringes range between RM1,300 and RM2,000 psf, while those in the suburbs are between RM700 and RM1,000 psf.

In the last few years, these apartments, which were sold for between RM500 and RM700 psf, have recorded price appreciation of between 70% and 120%.

“For suburbs such as Mont' Kiara and Sri Hartamas, prices start from RM650 psf and goes beyond RM1,000 psf. In Petaling Jaya and Kelana Jaya, prices are going between RM400 and RM450 psf, and have the further benefit of infrastructure capital.

“The KL City area is an AAA location. Prices will vary, but as long as we have tourism income contributing RM15bil-RM17bil a year, I don't see the property market being affected,” says Kumar.

On record prices, Ng says this is dependent on the yield that the particular property is generating. If the property is unable to command the said yield, property prices will eventually go down.

“Even if the area is a AAA location, but if it cannot get the yield required, the price will fall. The rule of thumb is that yields must be at least 5% of the property cost. Lets say you buy a property for RM1mil, therefore you should get rental of at least RM50,000 per annum. Otherwise the law of equilibrium steps in to bring the price down.”

Another area that Kumar foresees to be one of the hottest spots is the Bandar Utama, Mutiara Damansara and Damansara Perdana area. Known as the “golden mine”, the only missing ingredient is a link connecting all three townships.

“This has got to do with the stubborn old school mentality of the three developers. The linkages between Bandar Utama and Mutiara Damansara will benefit both the commercial centres of 1Utama and the Curve/Ikea/Cineplex area and Damansara Perdana.

Each has its own loyal purchasers but cross selling and ease of connections can only help both developers and Damansara Perdana in values and trade,” says Kumar.

He sees another future hot spot nearer the Shah Alam area, as many of the developers there are owners of huge tracts of landbank.

Among the developers in Shah Alam are SP Setia Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd, Island & Peninsular Bhd and IOI Corp Bhd.

Property, a hedge again recession and inflation? Part I

During financial “tsunami" buying property a better bet

According to thestar.com.my SC Cheah :

We are not facing with a property “bubble” as in the early 1990s and also, banks have reduced their construction loans since end of last year to avoid an over-supply situation.

Fear, uncertainty and even panic have gripped many investors who have dumped their shares in the local bourse.

We must remember that it’s not the global credit crunch that is worrying but soaring inflation caused mainly by spikes in crude oil prices. Although crude oil price has dropped recently, it may go up again.

Our property market has been affected by the high construction costs, inflation and a perceived over-built situation especially of high-end homes.

However, I am confident that if one has extra money and can afford to service a loan, investing in property especially in a good location is still a safer bet and will yield better returns in the long run.

This is not to say that one should not save money in fixed deposits. It is always prudent to have sufficient savings but with fixed deposit rates hovering around 3.7% to 4.2% for 12- and 60-month tenures respectively, it is still a negative return when compared with the current inflation rate of over 7% (for many people it is more like 30%).

What about the stock market? Punters have been nibbling at some bargains in the hope of making a tidy profit in the event of an upswing in price. Trouble is many of us are unsure of when it will hit bottom and how long it will take for it to recover, not to mention a bull-run which seems unlikely in the near future.

Unlike property, which is solid brick and mortar, share prices are often determined by sentiments and, currently sentiments are very weak. Many property counters have taken a beating.

My advice for those wishing to buy their first home is to do it now. Don’t fool yourself that prices of new launches will come down because developers cannot afford to reduce prices anymore as their profit margins are already cut to the bone.

In fact many developers I talked to said they were either withholding launches or increasing prices by 20% to 30%. This is also a good time to go bargain hunting in the secondary market and snap up unsold units of upmarket residential homes before developers are forced to increase their price.

Those who can afford homes priced above RM1mil may hold back on their purchase because of the prevailing global financial and local political uncertainties.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

GOOGLE GOOG OUTLOOK 2009 2010

Although GOOGLE (GOOG) is facing some near-term headwinds due to global economic weakness, its long-term growth story remains intact

Shares of Internet search company Google (GOOG 332.00) have been falling. However, it has rebound due to the recent strong earnings announcement.

Advertising Firm

Although Google provides technology services to individuals, the vast majority (97%) of its revenue generation is through advertising. Companies pay to place text-based advertisements next to Google Web search results. Because prices are based on a bidding system based on keywords, both big and small firms are able to utilize Google to buy ads that are relevant to their respective business. Ads are typically sold on a paid-per-click basis, meaning if a user does not click on the ad, the advertiser does not pay a fee.

Google also partners with other Web sites that display Google ads and/or have a Google search bar. Google then shares a portion of the advertising revenue with partners. There is no fee to participate in the program, encouraging both small and big Web sites to partner with Google.

With the 2008 acquisition of DoubleClick, Google has the ability to allow sites to place more interactive ads, presenting a good opportunity for Google to increase sales to companies that want more than just text-based ads.

Strong Outlook

Google's easy-to-use and uncluttered interface has allowed the company to continue to capture search market share from competitors. As Google expands its brand presence through its innovative product offerings, we expect its market share to continue to grow.

Global Market Share

Google

Yahoo

MSN/MSN Live

AOL

Other

2008 (Sept.)

79.9

11.0

4.8

2.1

2.7

2007

77.0

12.5

5.4

2.1

2.5

2006

75.0

12.5

6.9

2.4

1.7

2005

66.4

15.1

10.9

3.6

4.0

2004

56.9

19.7

13.4

4.2

5.9


* data from market share net apps

If approved by regulators, Google is poised to make a competitor into a partner through a recent agreement with Yahoo! (YHOO), the second most popular search engine. Under the terms of the deal, which was made in June after Yahoo rejected a buyout offer from Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo will run Google ads in North America in return for a share in revenue.

The government has expressed antitrust concerns because Yahoo and Google command 90% of the search market, so companies have voluntarily delayed the implementation of the agreement. While it is unclear if the partnership will be blocked, the fact that the pricing is auction based increases the chances it will be approved. Google is currently partnered with AOL and Ask.com.

On top of market share gains, Google will benefit from the continuation of strong growth in Internet advertising spending as more consumers and businesses embrace the Internet:

Global Advertising Spending*

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Total Ad Spending

$544.4 bln

$514.5 bln

$487.7 bln

$458.3 bln

$431.6 bln

% Ad Spending Year-Over-Year-Growth

5.8%

5.5%

6.4%

6.2%

-

Internet Spending

$66.9 bln

$57.1 bln

$47.5 bln

$37.8 bln

$28.8 bln

Year-Over-Year Internet Spending Growth

17.2%

20.1%

25.8%

31.1%

-

Internet Share of Total Ad Spending

12.3%

11.1%

9.7%

8.3%

6.7%

Google Revenue**

$24.6 bln

$20.2 bln

$16.1 bln

$11.1 bln

$7.3 bln

Google Revenue Growth

21.8%

25.5%

45.1%

52.1%

-

Google Share of Internet Spending

36.8%

35.4%

33.9%

29.4%

25.4

Google Share of Total Ad Spending

4.5%

3.9%

3.3%

2.4%

1.7%

*Advertising spending estimates from ZenithOptimedia. Google estimates from Thomson Reuters
**Google revenue is less traffic acquisition costs (the share of revenue paid to content partners)

Other Potential Revenue Growth Opportunities

Products such as Google Mail, Google Checkout, web browser, entrance into traditional media outlets and the acquisition of YouTube.com have yet to be profitable, which is a common criticism Google faces. However, they do increase Google's brand presence and search traffic, which in turn generates ad revenue.

In addition, the products are a potential future revenue source as Google works toward monetization -- such as its recent initiative to add click-to-buy links to Amazon and iTunes on YouTube music videos. We expect Google's culture of innovation will encourage further product improvements and developments.

Similar to positioning itself to benefit from the boom in Internet advertising growth, Google is positioning itself to capitalize on the fast growing mobile advertising market through its recently created mobile phone operating system and partnerships with major wireless providers.

Mobile ad spending is expected to grow from from $1.7 billion in 2007 to between $10 billion and $15 billion 2011, according to Heavy Reading, a telecom research firm. This means Google may see up to $9.2 billion in revenue from mobile search in 2011, assuming Google maintains its Nielsen Media estimated 61% mobile search market share.

Strong Financial Position

Google generates a large amount of cash from operations and, as a result, has a hefty $12.7 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company doesn't have any long-term debt. This will aid in Google's ability to invest in the future and will allow the company to navigate through this time of economic uncertainty.

2008 (Q2)

2007

2006

2005

2004

Cash Flow From Operations

$3.6 bln

$5.8 bln

$3.6 bln

$2.6 bln

$431.6 bln

Cash

$7.4 bln

$6.1 bln

$3.5 bln

$3.9 bln

$.44 bln

Short Term Investments

$5.4 bln

$8.1 bln

$7.7 bln

$4.2 bln

$1.7 bln

Current Ratio

7.0x

8.5x

10.0x

12.1x

8.5x

Long-Term Debt

0

0

0

0

$2 mln

*data from Thomson Reuters

Attractive Valuation

Given Google's healthy growth prospects, its stock offers an attractive valuation for investors.

Valuation

Google

Yahoo

S&P 500

PE TTM

21.8x

17.1x

13.6x

PE TTM 3-yr Average

57x

43.2x

18.8x

PE 2008

17.4x

27.9x

13.1x

PE 2009

14.3x

23.2x

11.5x

Expected Long Term Growth

26.0%

18.4%

12.1%

Price-to-Growth

0.7x

1.5x

1.1x

*data from Thomson Reuters

Expect to see some volatility:

Google's biggest risk in the near term is weakness in the global economy, which will likely cause companies to cut back on ad spending and therefore crimp Google's revenue growth. If Google is unable to rein in costs and capital expenditures as revenue growth slows, profit margins will decrease, and its near-term earnings expectations will be lowered.

Although Google is the dominant name in search, there is always the possibility of a competitor creating a better search engine. Microsoft, which has access to more resources, has made it clear that it wants to expand its search capabilities. In addition, Google's partnership with Yahoo may be rejected by regulators, which would raise the possibility of Microsoft renewing its attempt to acquire Yahoo.

A total of 52% of Google's revenue comes from outside the United States. If the dollar holds or extends its recent gains, Google may be negatively impacted in the fourth quarter and in 2009. The company does participate in hedging programs, which should offset some of the negative currency impact.

Summary

Shares of Google are likely to see some volatility in the near term as revenue growth slows due to the sluggish world economy. However, Google has the financial resources to weather a worldwide economic slowdown.

Once the global market recovers, the company is positioned to dominate search as well as benefit from increased Internet and mobile advertising revenue. As a result, Google's current price marks a good time for long-term oriented investors to initiate a position.

Original Source :


(Disclosure: Briefing.com has a business relationship with Google, Microsoft, Yahoo! and AOL).

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