Sunday, October 19, 2008

GOOGLE GOOG OUTLOOK 2009 2010

Although GOOGLE (GOOG) is facing some near-term headwinds due to global economic weakness, its long-term growth story remains intact

Shares of Internet search company Google (GOOG 332.00) have been falling. However, it has rebound due to the recent strong earnings announcement.

Advertising Firm

Although Google provides technology services to individuals, the vast majority (97%) of its revenue generation is through advertising. Companies pay to place text-based advertisements next to Google Web search results. Because prices are based on a bidding system based on keywords, both big and small firms are able to utilize Google to buy ads that are relevant to their respective business. Ads are typically sold on a paid-per-click basis, meaning if a user does not click on the ad, the advertiser does not pay a fee.

Google also partners with other Web sites that display Google ads and/or have a Google search bar. Google then shares a portion of the advertising revenue with partners. There is no fee to participate in the program, encouraging both small and big Web sites to partner with Google.

With the 2008 acquisition of DoubleClick, Google has the ability to allow sites to place more interactive ads, presenting a good opportunity for Google to increase sales to companies that want more than just text-based ads.

Strong Outlook

Google's easy-to-use and uncluttered interface has allowed the company to continue to capture search market share from competitors. As Google expands its brand presence through its innovative product offerings, we expect its market share to continue to grow.

Global Market Share

Google

Yahoo

MSN/MSN Live

AOL

Other

2008 (Sept.)

79.9

11.0

4.8

2.1

2.7

2007

77.0

12.5

5.4

2.1

2.5

2006

75.0

12.5

6.9

2.4

1.7

2005

66.4

15.1

10.9

3.6

4.0

2004

56.9

19.7

13.4

4.2

5.9


* data from market share net apps

If approved by regulators, Google is poised to make a competitor into a partner through a recent agreement with Yahoo! (YHOO), the second most popular search engine. Under the terms of the deal, which was made in June after Yahoo rejected a buyout offer from Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo will run Google ads in North America in return for a share in revenue.

The government has expressed antitrust concerns because Yahoo and Google command 90% of the search market, so companies have voluntarily delayed the implementation of the agreement. While it is unclear if the partnership will be blocked, the fact that the pricing is auction based increases the chances it will be approved. Google is currently partnered with AOL and Ask.com.

On top of market share gains, Google will benefit from the continuation of strong growth in Internet advertising spending as more consumers and businesses embrace the Internet:

Global Advertising Spending*

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Total Ad Spending

$544.4 bln

$514.5 bln

$487.7 bln

$458.3 bln

$431.6 bln

% Ad Spending Year-Over-Year-Growth

5.8%

5.5%

6.4%

6.2%

-

Internet Spending

$66.9 bln

$57.1 bln

$47.5 bln

$37.8 bln

$28.8 bln

Year-Over-Year Internet Spending Growth

17.2%

20.1%

25.8%

31.1%

-

Internet Share of Total Ad Spending

12.3%

11.1%

9.7%

8.3%

6.7%

Google Revenue**

$24.6 bln

$20.2 bln

$16.1 bln

$11.1 bln

$7.3 bln

Google Revenue Growth

21.8%

25.5%

45.1%

52.1%

-

Google Share of Internet Spending

36.8%

35.4%

33.9%

29.4%

25.4

Google Share of Total Ad Spending

4.5%

3.9%

3.3%

2.4%

1.7%

*Advertising spending estimates from ZenithOptimedia. Google estimates from Thomson Reuters
**Google revenue is less traffic acquisition costs (the share of revenue paid to content partners)

Other Potential Revenue Growth Opportunities

Products such as Google Mail, Google Checkout, web browser, entrance into traditional media outlets and the acquisition of YouTube.com have yet to be profitable, which is a common criticism Google faces. However, they do increase Google's brand presence and search traffic, which in turn generates ad revenue.

In addition, the products are a potential future revenue source as Google works toward monetization -- such as its recent initiative to add click-to-buy links to Amazon and iTunes on YouTube music videos. We expect Google's culture of innovation will encourage further product improvements and developments.

Similar to positioning itself to benefit from the boom in Internet advertising growth, Google is positioning itself to capitalize on the fast growing mobile advertising market through its recently created mobile phone operating system and partnerships with major wireless providers.

Mobile ad spending is expected to grow from from $1.7 billion in 2007 to between $10 billion and $15 billion 2011, according to Heavy Reading, a telecom research firm. This means Google may see up to $9.2 billion in revenue from mobile search in 2011, assuming Google maintains its Nielsen Media estimated 61% mobile search market share.

Strong Financial Position

Google generates a large amount of cash from operations and, as a result, has a hefty $12.7 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company doesn't have any long-term debt. This will aid in Google's ability to invest in the future and will allow the company to navigate through this time of economic uncertainty.

2008 (Q2)

2007

2006

2005

2004

Cash Flow From Operations

$3.6 bln

$5.8 bln

$3.6 bln

$2.6 bln

$431.6 bln

Cash

$7.4 bln

$6.1 bln

$3.5 bln

$3.9 bln

$.44 bln

Short Term Investments

$5.4 bln

$8.1 bln

$7.7 bln

$4.2 bln

$1.7 bln

Current Ratio

7.0x

8.5x

10.0x

12.1x

8.5x

Long-Term Debt

0

0

0

0

$2 mln

*data from Thomson Reuters

Attractive Valuation

Given Google's healthy growth prospects, its stock offers an attractive valuation for investors.

Valuation

Google

Yahoo

S&P 500

PE TTM

21.8x

17.1x

13.6x

PE TTM 3-yr Average

57x

43.2x

18.8x

PE 2008

17.4x

27.9x

13.1x

PE 2009

14.3x

23.2x

11.5x

Expected Long Term Growth

26.0%

18.4%

12.1%

Price-to-Growth

0.7x

1.5x

1.1x

*data from Thomson Reuters

Expect to see some volatility:

Google's biggest risk in the near term is weakness in the global economy, which will likely cause companies to cut back on ad spending and therefore crimp Google's revenue growth. If Google is unable to rein in costs and capital expenditures as revenue growth slows, profit margins will decrease, and its near-term earnings expectations will be lowered.

Although Google is the dominant name in search, there is always the possibility of a competitor creating a better search engine. Microsoft, which has access to more resources, has made it clear that it wants to expand its search capabilities. In addition, Google's partnership with Yahoo may be rejected by regulators, which would raise the possibility of Microsoft renewing its attempt to acquire Yahoo.

A total of 52% of Google's revenue comes from outside the United States. If the dollar holds or extends its recent gains, Google may be negatively impacted in the fourth quarter and in 2009. The company does participate in hedging programs, which should offset some of the negative currency impact.

Summary

Shares of Google are likely to see some volatility in the near term as revenue growth slows due to the sluggish world economy. However, Google has the financial resources to weather a worldwide economic slowdown.

Once the global market recovers, the company is positioned to dominate search as well as benefit from increased Internet and mobile advertising revenue. As a result, Google's current price marks a good time for long-term oriented investors to initiate a position.

Original Source :


(Disclosure: Briefing.com has a business relationship with Google, Microsoft, Yahoo! and AOL).

what to buy during recession and market down time?

It has been another crazy week.

DJIA 8852
Nasdaq 1711
S&P500 940
Russell2000 526

All YTD falled more than 30% so far!

Its extremely volatile these day.
This is a traders market.
As for long term investor, unless you have good cash flow, in which you do not need the money in the next few years, you should stay away, until the SPX is above moving average of 200day.

However, the 2nd richest man of the world, said otherwise : Buy America, I am.

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett, 78, said in an opinion piece published Friday in The New York Times.

If so, what to buy? Anyone know what business, industry will do well and grow during recession?

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Visa Worst Day is over? Rebouncing from now onwards?

9th Oct (Thu) & 10th Oct (Fri) 2008 - worst days for Visa so far. Hitting all time low of USD47, dragged down by the macro economy outlook, and Financial Crisis, and panic selling.

However, 13th Oct (Mon) - beautiful rebound of 13%! back to USD58!

Only if i dare to grab some at USD47.... i will be happy man on 13th Oct :)


------------------

A good article from schaeffersresearch.com
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/visa+inc+slips+on+2+price-target+cuts+/observations.aspx?ID=88371

10/10/08

Visa Inc. had a bit of a rocky morning, as the company was hit with 2 different price-target reductions. Ahead of the bell, Deutsche Bank analyst Christopher Mammone cut his price target and earnings estimate for both MasterCard and Visa. Specifically, Mammone maintained his "buy" rating for Visa, but cut his price target to $72 from $93, and slashed his 2009 earnings estimate to $2.75 per share from $2.91 per share. The analyst attributed the cuts to the potential onset of a global recession and its potential to affect consumer spending. Visa makes much of its profit through fees for each time a consumer swipes their card to make a purchase. The shares also fell victim to a price-target cut from Citigoup, which revised its 12-month estimate from $88 to $60.

On July 30, Visa reported that third-quarter net income came in at $422 million, or 51 cents per share. Adjusting for certain costs from litigation and other issues, net income came in at $457 million, or 59 cents per share. Analysts were expecting Visa to report 48 cents per share. Visa is slated to step into the earnings confessional once again on October 29.

Shares of Visa haven't had an easy time since they began trading earlier this year. In fact, from V's May high of $89.84, it has dropped 48% to find today's new low of $47. The equity has fallen under its 10-day moving average since early September. If the shares are able to make any progress on the charts, they could be hindered by this trendline, combined with resistance at the 56 region. The 56 area previously acted as a level of support, but has capped the security this week.


While the stock has recently received some negative brokerage action, it seems that analysts are still optimistic. According to Zacks, 11 analysts currently give the shares a "buy" or better rating, while there are 8 analysts in the bear camp, recommending "hold." Furthermore, V's average 12-month price target, according toThomson Financial, stands at $87.17, an 81% premium to the shares' current trading price. Any additional price-target cuts or downgrades from the bullish brokers could pressure these shares lower.
Near-term option traders seem to be rather optimistic toward the shares. Specifically, the October 60 call is the site of peak front-month open interest, with 6,304 contracts. The shares would need to rally more than 24% for this option to be in the money. Furthermore, put players have little reason to back away from their winning positions. The most popular October put contract is at the 67.50 strike. This option is 40% in the money. The high amount of out-of-the-money call open interest indicates that investors are expecting the shares to rally during the near term.

However, it seems option players are becoming less optimistic on the falling shares. During the past 10 trading sessions, the put/call ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) soared. The ratio of puts to calls is higher than almost 92% of all those taken since the stock has been trading, indicating a shift toward more bearish sentiment.

In conclusion, investors concerned with Visa should keep an eye on the stock's progress at the 56 region. If the stock is able to gain any upward momentum, this level could be an important region of support. However, without any positive brokerage notes, the equity could continue to fall, and any unwinding of optimism could certainly pressure the shares lower.

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